Sterling turmoil as polls split over election 2017 result

Sterling turmoil as polls split over election 2017 result

In stark contrast to opinion polls that have until the past week shown May on course for a big win in the snap election she called, the YouGov model suggested May would lose 20 seats and her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament.

If the results of this latest YouGov analysis were to be played out on election night, it could well lead to many of Theresa May's Conservative colleagues calling for her resignation even if the Tories do manage to win the most seats. May backed the "remain" campaign in the runup to last year's referendum on European Union membership, though she made few public appearances, but has repeatedly sought to present herself as the only party leader able to make a success of Brexit despite giving few details of how she will handle the negotiations.The Financial Times came out publicly for May, saying she was the safer bet, though The Sun newspaper, Britain's top selling paper, cautioned that May's campaign was far too defensive."Corbyn is selling a wonderland", The Sun said.

The British currency dipped by as much as 0.5 per cent overnight on the back of the YouGov poll.

Recall that PM May's intention to call for the snap election is to cement her mandate in negotiating the Brexit terms with the EU.

According to figures released Wednesday by pollsters YouGov, May's Conservatives could end up on June 8 with 310 seats, 16 short of having a majority in the House of Commons.

The latest YouGov/Times poll published on Thursday puts the gap at only 3% as Theresa May's lacklustre campaign stalls and Labour's share of the vote - at 39% - reaches its highest level for three years.

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'At this late stage of the United Kingdom election campaign, the pollsters are more dividend on the size of the Conservative party's lead that at any other time during the election, ' she said. And one of the reasons why the polls overestimated Labour's strength in 2015 was that they underestimated how may younger people would stay at home.

Another interesting debate is how the FTSE 100 trades if we see a Conservative majority, which as I say is still the likely scenario priced by markets.

Labour, on the other hand, is expected to gain 28 seats. The sentiment shifted dramatically when the results in Newcastle were far more pro-Brexit than people were expecting.

Michael Ashcroft, a former Conservative Party donor who funds polling, uses the same types of modelling as YouGov but came up with a very different estimate of the election: May winning 396 seats and Corbyn winning 180 seats. "She reminds a bit of Maggie Thatcher", added 25-year-old Wayne Layton, referring to Britain's other female prime minister.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said: "The UK election is becoming increasingly interesting for traders, as the widely predicted landslide is becoming less and less likely, according to the polls".

"The alternative is that all those young Corbynistas will prove a mirage and that some polls still contain too numerous sort of young people who vote, with the end result being that the Conservatives win a large or landslide majority", he said.

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