ECB Meeting: Coverage and Reactions of the Euro Exchange Rate Complex

GBP  USD price chart

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hit back on Thursday at the Trump White House for talking down the United States dollar, warning of the risks to the ECB's inflation outlook as a result of a surge in the euro.

"While it is by now widely recognised that euro area growth is strong, the extent of this is still being hugely underappreciated", JPMorgan economist Greg Fuzesi said before the rate decision.

Following recent US Dollar weakness on the back of the White House's rumoured plans to ramp up protectionist trade policies, investors were shocked to hear that Mnuchin was welcoming the recent US Dollar losses.

Markets also expect a rate hike only in the second half of 2019.

"The recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability", Mario Draghi said at the ECB's monthly press conference in Frankfurt. The purchases push newly printed money into the economy in an attempt to raise inflation toward the bank's goal of just under 2 percent; right now it is 1.4 percent annually despite continuing growth.

Still, Draghi said that several European Central Bank members are concerned beyond simple exchange rates - they are concerned about the overall status of global relations.

Aaron Kohli, rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in NY, expects the seven-year rate to come slightly higher than the expected level at the bid deadline, suggesting a little more tepid demand than usual for this type of maturity.

Policy makers reiterated that they'll continue buying 30 billion euros ($37 billion) of assets a month until at least the end of September.

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All-in-all, the euro managed to hit a total of 0.7% increase to $1.2498 against the dollar.

The euro stood at $1.2263, consolidating its rally after having hit a three-year high of $1.2323 on January 17. "It's not that we were arguing but we were debating the pros and cons. the big cloud over the forecast, as well as our discussion, is NAFTA", Poloz told a news conference.

Fears remain that the strong euro could dampen inflation and endanger the work done by years of unprecedented stimulus.

The euro's rise continued despite Mr Draghi's insistence that the European Central Bank would consider loosening its monetary policy should a weak dollar lead to an "unwarranted" rise in the cost of money in Europe.

"Based on today's data and today's projection I see very few chances at all that interest rates will be raised this year".

Draghi noted that for the European Central Bank, the question raised by exchange rates volatility was whether it would have an effect on the eurozone's "inflation path".

Draghi said strong eurozone data had "strengthened further our confidence that inflation will converge to our inflation aim of below or close to 2%".

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